ALABAMA -13' kentucky
BAYLOR -1' smu
SYRACUSE -3 louisville
Memphis +5 SOUTHERN MISS
UAB -11 troy state
houston -6' LOU LAFF
rice +10' DUKE
boston college -4' UCONN
cincy +7 WVIR
WAKE -1 purdue
Kentucky made Louisville look better than they are. I knew Ky was thin defensively going into that game and lacked decent LB talent, but if you watched them close they are pitiful all around fundementally. Poor tackling, poor timing, backs over-runnng their blocks, lead blockers watching the backs and not locking-up, virtually no downfield effort, just plain lackluster overall (even their coach stated their Div II effort at Murry this past week was half ass)... It really looks like new Ky coach Rich Brooks does not have much to offer... anyway, a Louisville team that lost a lot on offense ran through Ky like they were not there and I look for Alabama to do them same... I also look for Louisville to have a harder time of it at the Dome... Syracuse simply can't be as easy.
Baylor should get a home win for new coach Morriss in this one. They played reasonably well at home against what looks to be a decent UAB team giving up a late bomb for the loss (UAB QB Hackney looks fairly good to me in the right situation)... I realize Baylor did not like the physical defense of North Texas but I think they have enough to get a win here at home against SMU.
Memphis has been the better team so far this year... SMiss was inept at Cal and put fewer yards on UAB than Baylor getting the UAB win off of key fumbles... the only reason for this line is SMiss plays at home and they have a better history over previous years but so far this year Memphis has been the better team by really a decent margin. A coule of games does not prove much but I will take the points here and see what happens.
I kinda like QB Hackney at UAB. Troy used to show a little defense now and then traveling through what always seems to be their over loaded schedule but it looks like their defense may be fading a little. If UAB hangs onto the football this week they should put up some decent offensive numbers here. Hackney can read what is in front of him fairly well... he appears to force it now and then but I think he should have a pretty good day at home against Troy.
Lou Laff is just bad... and I think Houston may be a little better this year... Houston was seriously out classed last week but that was to be expected. They are fairly balanced on offense and at this level going against the screen door Lou Laff brings on defense I look for Lou Laff to fall short trying to match points.
When was the last time Duke was a double digit favorite? Over the last several years as inconsistant as Rice has been when they have faced losing programs they have won or stayed within double digits the vast majority of the time... Houston thumped them in their rivalry but, as I stated earlier, I think Houston may be a little improved this year... anyway, I will go with the unlikely event that Duke will cover double digits and the historical pattern that Rice, even during down years, does not usually lose by double digits to losing programs.... and I think Duke clearly fits the definition of a losing program.
Going against both UConn and WVir based on the fact that neither has really been tested so far this year.
You have to go with Wake until they stumble... Purdue may be a little over-hyped (just like the pre-season world beater Auburn right?)... not sure about Purdue here but going with what has happened on the field thus far... it is difficult to get past Wake's long history but their coach is clearly a teaching coach and he has them doing a lot of good things on the field... plain and simple they are solid in a lot of areas with good effort... put that at home and you have to give it a play.
One last note... I put some very light pre-season action on Mich -6... now at -10 the number looks to large for this series... but Notre Dame simply is not a complete team... their lack of offense would make them a difficult bet for me at this level at almost any reasonable number... I had nothing on their win last week but their come back drives were flag assisted and, what seemed to stick out more to me, they were allowed to hold up a lot of receivers all over the place on defense while being called only like one time for it... I expect ND to be real crap on the road this year... but they scrare me to much to go against them very big. You have to admit they are pretty damn lucky at times.
Light'em up and tear me a new one! What do you think?
Good luck,
Hogjawl
Now off to the lake...
BAYLOR -1' smu
SYRACUSE -3 louisville
Memphis +5 SOUTHERN MISS
UAB -11 troy state
houston -6' LOU LAFF
rice +10' DUKE
boston college -4' UCONN
cincy +7 WVIR
WAKE -1 purdue
Kentucky made Louisville look better than they are. I knew Ky was thin defensively going into that game and lacked decent LB talent, but if you watched them close they are pitiful all around fundementally. Poor tackling, poor timing, backs over-runnng their blocks, lead blockers watching the backs and not locking-up, virtually no downfield effort, just plain lackluster overall (even their coach stated their Div II effort at Murry this past week was half ass)... It really looks like new Ky coach Rich Brooks does not have much to offer... anyway, a Louisville team that lost a lot on offense ran through Ky like they were not there and I look for Alabama to do them same... I also look for Louisville to have a harder time of it at the Dome... Syracuse simply can't be as easy.
Baylor should get a home win for new coach Morriss in this one. They played reasonably well at home against what looks to be a decent UAB team giving up a late bomb for the loss (UAB QB Hackney looks fairly good to me in the right situation)... I realize Baylor did not like the physical defense of North Texas but I think they have enough to get a win here at home against SMU.
Memphis has been the better team so far this year... SMiss was inept at Cal and put fewer yards on UAB than Baylor getting the UAB win off of key fumbles... the only reason for this line is SMiss plays at home and they have a better history over previous years but so far this year Memphis has been the better team by really a decent margin. A coule of games does not prove much but I will take the points here and see what happens.
I kinda like QB Hackney at UAB. Troy used to show a little defense now and then traveling through what always seems to be their over loaded schedule but it looks like their defense may be fading a little. If UAB hangs onto the football this week they should put up some decent offensive numbers here. Hackney can read what is in front of him fairly well... he appears to force it now and then but I think he should have a pretty good day at home against Troy.
Lou Laff is just bad... and I think Houston may be a little better this year... Houston was seriously out classed last week but that was to be expected. They are fairly balanced on offense and at this level going against the screen door Lou Laff brings on defense I look for Lou Laff to fall short trying to match points.
When was the last time Duke was a double digit favorite? Over the last several years as inconsistant as Rice has been when they have faced losing programs they have won or stayed within double digits the vast majority of the time... Houston thumped them in their rivalry but, as I stated earlier, I think Houston may be a little improved this year... anyway, I will go with the unlikely event that Duke will cover double digits and the historical pattern that Rice, even during down years, does not usually lose by double digits to losing programs.... and I think Duke clearly fits the definition of a losing program.
Going against both UConn and WVir based on the fact that neither has really been tested so far this year.
You have to go with Wake until they stumble... Purdue may be a little over-hyped (just like the pre-season world beater Auburn right?)... not sure about Purdue here but going with what has happened on the field thus far... it is difficult to get past Wake's long history but their coach is clearly a teaching coach and he has them doing a lot of good things on the field... plain and simple they are solid in a lot of areas with good effort... put that at home and you have to give it a play.
One last note... I put some very light pre-season action on Mich -6... now at -10 the number looks to large for this series... but Notre Dame simply is not a complete team... their lack of offense would make them a difficult bet for me at this level at almost any reasonable number... I had nothing on their win last week but their come back drives were flag assisted and, what seemed to stick out more to me, they were allowed to hold up a lot of receivers all over the place on defense while being called only like one time for it... I expect ND to be real crap on the road this year... but they scrare me to much to go against them very big. You have to admit they are pretty damn lucky at times.
Light'em up and tear me a new one! What do you think?
Good luck,
Hogjawl
Now off to the lake...
